"EU leadership too weak to navigate Trump 2.0"
Xenia Tourki, Philenews (Cyprus), 01.12.2024
Interview
When America sneezes, Europe catches a cold. Recent developments across the Atlantic following Donald Trump’s victory have rattled the European Union. The president-elect’s declarations leave no room for misinterpreting his intentions. Elected on promises to “make America great again” – his campaign slogan – that’s precisely what he intends to do. Unlike his first term, he’s more experienced and determined to implement his agenda, focusing on issues like immigration reform and tariffs.
European countries will feel the impact of the new US president’s policies, says Janis Emmanouilidis, Director of Studies and Deputy Chief Executive at the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels, in his interview with Phileleftheros. The EU will be affected by potential tariffs imposed by the new American administration, developments in Ukraine and the Middle East, and its stance on issues like climate change.
Meanwhile, Trump’s victory will embolden his European imitators. The European far-right will try to capitalise on these developments – they’ve made no secret of it. “What the far-right wants is to change Europe from within. They don’t want to destroy it or leave it; they want to change it, and they want to achieve this using the American president-elect”, Emmanouilidis stated.
As a particularly challenging situation unfolds, unity is the only way forward for the EU, emphasised the EPC Deputy Chief Executive. His major concern is that the different interests and ambitions of member states won’t allow the 27 to demonstrate a unified European policy. As he pointed out, the EU has a clear leadership vacuum, and currently lacks those who could take it forward.
Tourki: How do you see Donald Trump’s second term unfolding?
Emmanouilidis: I believe his second term will be entirely different from his first. He achieved a significant victory in the November 5th election, has Congress behind him – both the House and Senate – a favourable Supreme Court, and is more experienced and prepared than he was in 2016. Most importantly, he’s more determined to proceed and implement what he promised during his campaign. Therefore, we should expect him to faithfully execute his agenda, which is evident from his key cabinet appointments. He’s appointing loyalists who will implement his programme. He’ll try to implement his agenda. That’s why it’s naive to compare the Trump 1.0 era with Trump 2.0.
Tourki: Looking at his agenda and promises, what should we expect?
Emmanouilidis: We know he’ll pursue reforms within America itself, with border protection being his priority, which is why he’ll attempt to implement his mass deportation promises. Appointing Tom Homan as immigration policy chief indicates he’ll take a hard line. Another significant issue is tariffs and import duties. It’s questionable how far he’ll go, but we shouldn’t be surprised to see tariffs imposed on Europe. Then there’s Ukraine. He’s already attempted to enter direct talks with Vladimir Putin to achieve a peace agreement, whatever that means in his mind. And I can assume the Russian president must be pleased with all this. Regarding Middle East developments, he’ll support Israel even more strongly. And as he’s stated, he’ll have no green agenda whatsoever.
Tourki: All this will have a major impact within the US too, won’t it?
Emmanouilidis: Absolutely. Here in Europe, we focus on what he’ll do with NATO, Ukraine and the Middle East, while ignoring and failing to prepare for the turbulence within the US. If he implements his agenda, it will have a major impact on democratic institutions. He talks about the need to change the system from within, to dismantle the deep state. And this time, there don’t appear to be forces in Washington that can stop him. He’s spoken about enemies from within, thirsts for revenge. All this will have potentially major implications for the democratic system. And this will affect Europe too.
Tourki: As we see the new Trump administration taking shape, do you anticipate difficulties in Euro-Atlantic relations?
Emmanouilidis: As I’ve already said, Europe must prepare for Donald Trump to pursue his stated agenda. If he imposes tariffs, we’ll feel the economic impact immediately. European economies will face significant pressure due to imports and exports with the US. But there will also be indirect consequences. If, for example, he engages with Vladimir Putin and imposes a peace plan for Ukraine, forcing the Ukrainians to accept it, this will affect Europe, which supports Kyiv and might be forced to become even more involved. Or even guarantee Ukraine’s security, whatever remains of it after the agreement. The same applies to the Middle East, a region that’s essentially next door to us. We could see increased migration flows or new economic pressures. And for you in Cyprus, this is something you must keep very much in mind. It will affect our prosperity, security, and lives. In Europe, we’ve invested heavily in the Green Deal, which Donald Trump considers a lie and will try to dismantle. And I’ve already mentioned the consequences for democracy – we know very well that European “Orbáns” are lying in wait and will use Donald Trump’s arguments.
Tourki: To what extent will the far-right in Europe benefit from Donald Trump’s electoral victory?
Emmanouilidis: To a very great extent. European far-right will try to capitalise on Donald Trump’s election; they’ve declared this clearly. What the far-right wants is to change Europe from within – they don’t want to destroy it or leave it; they want to change it, and they want to achieve this using the American president-elect. They’ll try to benefit from seeing someone ideologically much closer to them in the White House. The big question is what exactly will follow. I say this because Trump’s pronouncements come with major consequences. For example, mass deportations will affect the American economy and society. His inner circle says we must proceed because it’s the right thing to do. Nevertheless, the consequences will be taken into account.
Tourki: It’s clear you’re worried about the consequences for liberal democracy. If the worst scenarios come true and we see it weakening, what might emerge in its place?
Emmanouilidis: Yes, there are clearly reasons for concern, because Donald Trump wishes to fundamentally change the US, and the way he wants to do it will affect pluralistic, liberal democracy. Meanwhile, internationally, he’ll serve as a model for many others. What we must emphasise is that nothing is predetermined – it depends on the resistance he encounters. Europe must take into account developments in the US because whatever happens there will be used by illiberal, far-right, extreme forces within member states themselves.
Tourki: Some people go as far as saying the US will become an authoritarian state and eventually resemble China or Russia.
Emmanouilidis: We must be careful with such assumptions. We know what Donald Trump wants to do; the question is how far he can go. We’ve already discussed the consequences. We need to see how others, especially the Democrats, will react. For now, they’re still analysing why they lost. At some point, though, they need to clarify what they’ll do and what kind of opposition they’ll be. There’s also a portion of the Republican Party that hasn’t been absorbed by Trump’s MAGA movement and might resist. The president-elect is already testing all these people through his cabinet nominations. He’s testing to see how far his opponents can be pushed. And this applies to Europeans too. Therefore, instead of focusing on what Donald Trump will do, let’s focus on what we will do. However, a divisive scenario of ‘us versus them’ is being set up.
Tourki: Is the European Union in crisis? Can it play a dynamic role in our constantly changing world?
Emmanouilidis: Economically, the EU is a strong player. And if the 27 manage to stand united, they’ll be able to grow even stronger. The question is to what extent they’ll manage to stay united. I believe Donald Trump will try to sow discord on the European side, and I wonder if we’ll be as united as we were during his first term. I’m not sure we’ll manage. Geopolitically, however, the EU is weak. The discussion about European security started during Barack Obama’s presidency. Then came Trump’s presidency, Biden’s presidency, and we’re still discussing the same thing.
It’s an argument that’s often made though. That Trump’s second presidency might shake up the EU to the point where it becomes more combative, more united, stronger, more independent.
There’s an argument that Trump’s election could serve as a wake-up call for Europe. I understand this logic, but on the other hand, we’ve had many opportunities to wake up and we haven’t used them to become stronger in areas like security. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and earlier, the annexation of Crimea, for example. We have disagreements on these issues and we can’t overcome them.
Tourki: How do you view Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range American weapons for attacks against Russia? Is the West moving closer to a direct confrontation with Moscow?
Emmanouilidis: We’re already in conflict with Russia. The war in Ukraine is Europe’s war too. I believe Joe Biden wanted to ensure that for the remainder of his term, Kyiv would have as much economic and military aid as possible. However, we know that with the new year, the US will have a new president and new circumstances will emerge.
Tourki: Donald Trump has said he’ll solve the Ukraine issue within 24 hours. Can we imagine what kind of solution this might be, considering the different positions of Kyiv and Moscow?
Emmanouilidis: Donald Trump has said many things that we shouldn’t take literally. I imagine he meant he’d solve the Ukrainian issue in a short timeframe. He’s convinced he’ll use US power to achieve this, and I suppose he’ll continue wanting direct contact with Vladimir Putin. He has a peace plan in mind and will exert great pressure on Kyiv to accept it. He’ll also use disagreements within the EU to achieve what he wants. And perhaps we’re approaching the point where some kind of settlement will be reached that sends the message to the Russian president that he’s managed to win. And this is particularly worrying from a European perspective, because it will only be a matter of time before new Russian aggression manifests if Vladimir Putin feels he’s won.
Tourki: And it’s easy to imagine who’ll have the upper hand if there are direct talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Emmanouilidis: Obviously. If Vladimir Putin gets what he needs to make Donald Trump believe he’s won, that he’s succeeded and that he’s the great leader who brought the war to an end, while essentially managing to achieve everything he wanted.
Tourki: US relations with China have hit rock bottom. What will Donald Trump’s return to the White House mean for Beijing?
Emmanouilidis: Actually, on this issue, we’ll see some kind of continuity. I mean that in Donald Trump’s second term, US-China tensions will continue, as he’s already announced new tariffs on Chinese products. Unlike the Trump 1.0 period, however, China is in a more difficult economic position, which might change the situation. American pressure will intensify, which will also put pressure on Europe to show a tougher stance towards Beijing. This is probably why the Chinese aren’t as pleased as the Russians about Donald Trump’s re-election, possibly because they know the new American administration will force others beyond Europe to take a harder stance against them.
Tourki: So far, however, the EU has managed to maintain a more neutral stance in the US-China dispute. Will it be able to continue doing so in the future?
Emmanouilidis: Europeans have close economic ties with China. They’ll seek to protect their interests and don’t want to push too hard. They’ll try to maintain balance, satisfying both sides, hoping they can hold out for three or four years until Trump’s term ends. They want to buy time until they see what might happen. In my opinion, it’s a naive approach, but I see many embracing it. Personally, I believe we need to develop better reflexes and dynamically face whatever emerges rather than simply waiting for it to end. We need to proceed with our European integration. But are we moving in that direction? Is this what we want to achieve? I have serious doubts about this, just as I have doubts about whether we have leaders capable of taking the EU forward. It’s not easy, there are risks, but we must dare to move forward with major changes.
Read full interview here
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